Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$722.78

Combined PnL

$8.27

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$227.78

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$21.03

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$12.76

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$505.57	$495	-$1.5	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$248.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$250.61	—	-$250
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$150	$145	+$9.05	52% 3882-3606 (7488)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$32.7	$28.23	+$7.29	54% 2727-2307 (5034)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$24.64	$24	-$0.64	44% 1400-1752 (3152)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$15.82	$21.55	+$5.73	40% 1745-2665 (4410)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$9.7	$9	-$0.4	62% 4661-2837 (7498)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$5.3	—	-$5.3	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$2.03	—	-$2.03	50% 1757-1792 (3549)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$0.87	—	-$0.87	49% 2514-2591 (5105)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$2.1	—	-$2.1	50% 2856-2850 (5706)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	48% 2561-2807 (5368)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.26	—	-$1.26	65% 2837-1544 (4381)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.57

Value

$495

PnL

-$1.5

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

Both legs:

Down$247.550¢+$248.5

Up$250.6149.6¢-$250

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

+$9.05

Record

52%

3882-3606 (7488)

Invested

$32.7

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$7.29

Record

54%

2727-2307 (5034)

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.64

Record

44%

1400-1752 (3152)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$15.82

Value

$21.55

PnL

+$5.73

Record

40%

1745-2665 (4410)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.7

Value

$9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

4661-2837 (7498)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

—

PnL

-$5.3

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.03

Value

—

PnL

-$2.03

Record

50%

1757-1792 (3549)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

—

PnL

-$0.87

Record

49%

2514-2591 (5105)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

—

PnL

-$2.1

Record

50%

2856-2850 (5706)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

48%

2561-2807 (5368)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.26

Value

—

PnL

-$1.26

Record

65%

2837-1544 (4381)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x883a2eda...e8522d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794765300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Down — $145

ply-pm2

Down — $28.23

13897651

Down — $24

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $21.55

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $9

asdcaxz

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket