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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 40%

Total Value

$299.05

Combined PnL

-$522.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares568

Combined PnL-$530.24

Up6 traders

Total Value$299.05

Total Shares299

Combined PnL+$7.43

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.7¢	$500.85	—	-$499.15	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$5.8	52% 3882-3606 (7488)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 99¢	$92.93	$93.9	+$0.97	40% 1745-2665 (4410)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 75.1¢	$45.9	$41.15	-$4.75	44% 1400-1752 (3152)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 37.7¢	$22.78	—	-$22.78	49% 3629-3731 (7360)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 41¢	$6.1	$5	+$3.05	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 92.8¢	$4.64	$5	+$0.36	62% 4661-2837 (7498)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2	$4	+$2	51% 2193-2101 (4294)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$1.04	—	-$1.04	60% 4264-2896 (7160)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$7.27	—	-$7.27	54% 2727-2307 (5034)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500.85

Value

—

PnL

-$499.15

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$5.8

Record

52%

3882-3606 (7488)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$92.93

Value

$93.9

PnL

+$0.97

Record

40%

1745-2665 (4410)

Invested

$45.9

Value

$41.15

PnL

-$4.75

Record

44%

1400-1752 (3152)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$22.78

Value

—

PnL

-$22.78

Record

49%

3629-3731 (7360)

Invested

$6.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.05

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.36

Record

62%

4661-2837 (7498)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$2

Value

$4

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2193-2101 (4294)

Invested

$1.04

Value

—

PnL

-$1.04

Record

60%

4264-2896 (7160)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$7.27

Value

—

PnL

-$7.27

Record

54%

2727-2307 (5034)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd45b9545...6bdf14

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794764400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $150

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $93.9

13897651

Up — $41.15

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

asdcaxz

Up — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $4

aaa221

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

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