Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
14
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$609.22
-$40.93
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7Β’ | $516.62 | $495 | -$9.3 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50.6Β’ | $250.47 | $495 | +$245.05 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.7Β’ | $251.1 | β | -$254.35 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 68.4Β’ | $29.23 | $31.48 | +$2.25 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 72Β’ | $34.81 | $30.43 | -$4.37 | 44% 1390-1746 (3136) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 72.5Β’ | $21.8 | $30.06 | +$8.26 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.5Β’ | $19.8 | β | -$19.8 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.1Β’ | $27.82 | β | -$23.72 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83.1Β’ | $5.04 | $6.06 | +$1.02 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 95Β’ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 67Β’ | $4.14 | $6.18 | +$2.04 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80Β’ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 60% 4239-2880 (7119) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.5Β’ | $2.64 | β | -$2.64 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 7Β’ | $1.47 | β | -$1.47 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 15Β’ | $1.05 | β | -$1.05 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5Β’ | $0.26 | β | -$0.26 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.3Β’ | $2.45 | β | -$2.45 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
Invested
$516.62
Value
$495
PnL
-$9.3
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.23
Value
$31.48
PnL
+$2.25
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$34.81
Value
$30.43
PnL
-$4.37
Record
44%
1390-1746 (3136)
Invested
$21.8
Value
$30.06
PnL
+$8.26
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$19.8
Value
β
PnL
-$19.8
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$27.82
Value
β
PnL
-$23.72
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$1.02
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.14
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$2.04
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
60%
4239-2880 (7119)
Invested
$2.64
Value
β
PnL
-$2.64
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
β
PnL
-$1.47
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$1.05
Value
β
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.26
Value
β
PnL
-$0.26
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
Invested
$2.45
Value
β
PnL
-$2.45
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
asdcaxz
Down β $31.48
13897651
Down β $30.43
soswald1
Down β $30.06
ply-pm2
CTRUp β $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $6.06
hoodquant
Down β $5

OhioRiskManagement
Down β $6.18
aaa221
Down β $5