Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 44%
$103.39
-$554.83
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.4¢ | $508.09 | — | -$501.02 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $35.53 | $40 | +$5.07 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $28.44 | $28.6 | +$0.17 | 44% 1390-1746 (3136) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $37.48 | — | -$37.48 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.2¢ | $38 | — | -$38 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $5.1 | $6.07 | +$0.97 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.6¢ | $11.8 | — | -$7.6 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 13.5¢ | $3.6 | $26.69 | +$23.09 | 49% 1742-1781 (3523) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $6.83 | $2.02 | -$0.02 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
Invested
$508.09
Value
—
PnL
-$501.02
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Invested
$35.53
Value
$40
PnL
+$5.07
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$28.44
Value
$28.6
PnL
+$0.17
Record
44%
1390-1746 (3136)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$37.48
Value
—
PnL
-$37.48
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
Invested
$38
Value
—
PnL
-$38
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$0.97
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$11.8
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$26.69
PnL
+$23.09
Record
49%
1742-1781 (3523)
Invested
$6.83
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)