Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 71%
2 arb excluded
$655.98
-$17.15
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $510.71 | $495.92 | -$7.28 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $253.11 | — | -$252.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $248.84 | $495.92 | +$245.52 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$0.48 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $74.5 | — | -$74.52 | |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 44% 1390-1746 (3136) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $4.45 | $5.06 | +$0.61 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 65% 2817-1530 (4347) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $1.39 | — | -$1.39 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.61 | 49% 1742-1781 (3523) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $7.71 | — | -$7.71 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
Invested
$510.71
Value
$495.92
PnL
-$7.28
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$0.48
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
44%
1390-1746 (3136)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.61
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
65%
2817-1530 (4347)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$1.39
Value
—
PnL
-$1.39
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
49%
1742-1781 (3523)
Invested
$7.71
Value
—
PnL
-$7.71
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)