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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 50%

Total Value

$127.61

Combined PnL

-$551.1

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares684

Combined PnL-$567.55

Down7 traders

Total Value$127.61

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$16.45

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$510.52	—	-$502.1	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$43.5	$44.7	+$1.2	34% 1232-2436 (3668)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$35.71	$38.72	+$3.02	44% 1390-1746 (3136)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$16.52	$21.06	+$4.59	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$25.33	—	-$25.33	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$3.18	$6.13	+$2.94	62% 4631-2815 (7446)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$10	+$3.65	52% 3043-2759 (5802)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$7.95	—	-$7.95	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 82¢	$4.1	—	-$4.1	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 14.9¢	$3.15	—	-$3.15	40% 1734-2647 (4381)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1	$2	+$1	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.6¢	$0.92	—	-$0.92	53% 1595-1405 (3000)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 34.2¢	$24	—	-$24	49% 2495-2563 (5058)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$510.52

Value

—

PnL

-$502.1

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Invested

$43.5

Value

$44.7

PnL

+$1.2

Record

34%

1232-2436 (3668)

Invested

$35.71

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$3.02

Record

44%

1390-1746 (3136)

Invested

$16.52

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$4.59

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$25.33

Value

—

PnL

-$25.33

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.18

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$2.94

Record

62%

4631-2815 (7446)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.65

Record

52%

3043-2759 (5802)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

—

PnL

-$7.95

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

67%

3966-1997 (5963)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

—

PnL

-$4.1

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

—

PnL

-$3.15

Record

40%

1734-2647 (4381)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1

Value

$2

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

Invested

$0.92

Value

—

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

1595-1405 (3000)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

—

PnL

-$24

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x04cf951b...d79525

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794762000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $44.7

13897651

Down — $38.72

soswald1

Down — $21.06

ply-pm2

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $6.13

MayorMamdani

Down — $10

asdcaxz

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

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