Solana Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $547 held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$547.39

Combined PnL

-$7.15

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$48.67

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$0.21

Down2 traders

Total Value$0.44

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$7.36

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$510	$498.28	+$1.18	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.5	$327.5	+$77.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$247.01	$170.77	-$76.42
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$20.54	$21.78	+$1.24	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$16.49	$14.65	-$1.84	44% 1373-1733 (3106)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 81.8¢	$4.09	$4.93	+$0.84	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.93	-$0.03	66% 3908-1973 (5881)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48¢	$1.74	$1.81	+$0.07	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 56¢	$0.66	$0.59	-$0.07	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$1.25	$0.38	-$0.88	40% 1709-2617 (4326)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$6.56	$0.07	-$6.49	50% 4548-4636 (9184)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$510

Value

$498.28

PnL

+$1.18

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Up$250.550.1¢+$77.6

Down$247.0149.9¢-$76.42

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$20.54

Value

$21.78

PnL

+$1.24

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

13897651<$100

Invested

$16.49

Value

$14.65

PnL

-$1.84

Record

44%

1373-1733 (3106)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.84

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

66%

3908-1973 (5881)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

soswald1<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.88

Record

40%

1709-2617 (4326)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.56

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$6.49

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.