Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 40%
$178.25
-$502.89
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $500.61 | — | -$496.41 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$2.35 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $14.08 | $11.19 | -$2.89 | 44% 1373-1733 (3106) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $5.5 | $5 | -$0.5 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.4 | $5.06 | +$0.66 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $1.24 | $2 | +$0.76 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 50% 955-949 (1904) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.3¢ | $4.54 | — | -$4.54 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.37 | — | -$1.37 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
Invested
$500.61
Value
—
PnL
-$496.41
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$2.35
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$14.08
Value
$11.19
PnL
-$2.89
Record
44%
1373-1733 (3106)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.66
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
Invested
$1.24
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.76
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
955-949 (1904)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
—
PnL
-$4.54
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
—
PnL
-$1.37
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)