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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 55%

Total Value

$101.01

Combined PnL

-$558.73

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares713

Combined PnL-$573.98

Up5 traders

Total Value$101.01

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$15.25

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$512.29	—	-$492.1	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$46.45	—	-$46.45	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$36.7	$37.45	+$0.75	98% 4434-91 (4525)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$36.81	$35.55	-$1.26	44% 1373-1733 (3106)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$15.49	—	-$15.49	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 32.2¢	$5.15	$16.01	+$10.86	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$5.25	$7	+$2.45	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	$5	+$2.45	48% 1480-1593 (3073)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1471-2611 (4082)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$17.7	—	-$17.7	49% 2456-2514 (4970)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$512.29

Value

—

PnL

-$492.1

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$46.45

Value

—

PnL

-$46.45

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

Invested

$36.7

Value

$37.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

Invested

$36.81

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$1.26

Record

44%

1373-1733 (3106)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$15.49

Value

—

PnL

-$15.49

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

Invested

$5.15

Value

$16.01

PnL

+$10.86

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$7

PnL

+$2.45

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

Invested

$2.55

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.45

Record

48%

1480-1593 (3073)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1471-2611 (4082)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

—

PnL

-$17.7

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa4adcfb3...33850d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794755100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $37.45

13897651

Up — $35.55

ply-pm2

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $16.01

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $7

PBot-5

Up — $5

asdcaxz

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

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