Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$822.98
-$119.13
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $519.82 | $502.74 | +$1.4 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.9¢ | $255.92 | $502.74 | +$250.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.9¢ | $243.51 | — | -$248.9 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $153.85 | — | -$122.4 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $94.96 | $91.16 | -$1.93 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $73.18 | $69.22 | -$3.96 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $58.89 | $60.55 | +$1.67 | 44% 1373-1733 (3106) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 51% 1638-1554 (3192) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $18.83 | $18.49 | -$0.34 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $18.12 | $18 | +$2.4 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $29.78 | $35.75 | +$5.97 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $6.35 | $10 | +$3.65 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $4 | $5.06 | +$1.06 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $5 | +$0.6 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 42% 2048-2798 (4846) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $2.25 | $3 | +$0.75 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2 | $4 | +$2 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
Invested
$519.82
Value
$502.74
PnL
+$1.4
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.85
Value
—
PnL
-$122.4
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$94.96
Value
$91.16
PnL
-$1.93
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$73.18
Value
$69.22
PnL
-$3.96
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Invested
$58.89
Value
$60.55
PnL
+$1.67
Record
44%
1373-1733 (3106)
Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
51%
1638-1554 (3192)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$18.49
PnL
-$0.34
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$18.12
Value
$18
PnL
+$2.4
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$29.78
Value
$35.75
PnL
+$5.97
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.35
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.65
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$1.06
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
42%
2048-2798 (4846)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.75
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$2
Value
$4
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $91.16
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $69.22
13897651
Down — $60.55
almach
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $18.49
asdcaxz
Down — $18
ply-pm2
Down — $35.75
MayorMamdani
Down — $10