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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$560.53

Combined PnL

-$127.6

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$143.59

Down3 traders

Total Value$72.29

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$15.99

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$508.92	$488.23	-$9.56	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$244.12	$488.23	+$243.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$252.76	—	-$253.25
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$33.38	—	-$33.38	44% 1373-1733 (3106)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$34.55	$35.26	+$2.39	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$34.34	—	-$34.34	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$35.72	—	-$35.72	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 56¢	$16.16	$28.85	+$12.69	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$22.3	—	-$22.3	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$7.28	$8.18	+$0.9	62% 4574-2778 (7352)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$6.27	—	-$6.27	34% 1215-2411 (3626)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	49% 1730-1766 (3496)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 25.3¢	$2.11	—	-$2.11	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 23.4¢	$5.54	—	-$5.54	40% 1709-2617 (4326)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.92

Value

$488.23

PnL

-$9.56

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$244.1250¢+$243.69

Up$252.7649.7¢-$253.25

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$33.38

Value

—

PnL

-$33.38

Record

44%

1373-1733 (3106)

Invested

$34.55

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$2.39

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$34.34

Value

—

PnL

-$34.34

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$35.72

Value

—

PnL

-$35.72

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

Invested

$16.16

Value

$28.85

PnL

+$12.69

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$22.3

Value

—

PnL

-$22.3

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$0.9

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

—

PnL

-$6.27

Record

34%

1215-2411 (3626)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

—

PnL

-$3.92

Record

49%

1730-1766 (3496)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

—

PnL

-$2.11

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

—

PnL

-$5.54

Record

40%

1709-2617 (4326)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x62bbec9b...081a8e

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794754500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $0

asdcaxz

Down — $35.26

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

aaa221

Down — $28.85

soswald1

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $8.18

pspspsps5

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

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