Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 37%
$425.1
-$646.26
Smart Money Signal
7 of 19 top traders (37%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.6¢ | $520.51 | — | -$490.35 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $156.8 | $126 | +$1.61 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 94.6¢ | $119.66 | $116.74 | -$2.92 | 50% 1714-1745 (3459) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $93.55 | — | -$87.61 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.1¢ | $40.17 | — | -$27.01 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $46.81 | $49 | +$2.19 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $35.98 | $36.12 | +$0.14 | 44% 1363-1710 (3073) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 23.7¢ | $8 | $22.79 | +$19.29 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $15.42 | $13 | -$2.42 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.88 | $12 | +$0.12 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $9.36 | — | -$9.36 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $11.1 | $9 | -$2.1 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $8.93 | $8.01 | -$0.92 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $9.24 | $8.04 | +$1.8 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 21.6¢ | $4.85 | $22.41 | +$17.56 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.98 | $2 | +$0.02 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.54 | — | -$0.54 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $64.87 | — | -$64.87 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
Invested
$520.51
Value
—
PnL
-$490.35
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$156.8
Value
$126
PnL
+$1.61
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$119.66
Value
$116.74
PnL
-$2.92
Record
50%
1714-1745 (3459)
Invested
$93.55
Value
—
PnL
-$87.61
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$40.17
Value
—
PnL
-$27.01
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$46.81
Value
$49
PnL
+$2.19
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$35.98
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$0.14
Record
44%
1363-1710 (3073)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8
Value
$22.79
PnL
+$19.29
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$15.42
Value
$13
PnL
-$2.42
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$9.36
Value
—
PnL
-$9.36
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$9
PnL
-$2.1
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$8.01
PnL
-$0.92
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$9.24
Value
$8.04
PnL
+$1.8
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$22.41
PnL
+$17.56
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.02
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
—
PnL
-$0.54
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$64.87
Value
—
PnL
-$64.87
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $126
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $116.74
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $49
13897651
Down — $36.12
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $22.79
asidjasiodja
Down — $13
dvasdkasodk
Down — $12