Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$893.11
-$7.8
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $521.67 | $500.01 | +$6.44 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$12.1 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $60 | — | -$62.9 | |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $69.42 | $70.12 | +$0.7 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $56.12 | $44.44 | -$5.88 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $36 | $43.21 | +$7.21 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $30.01 | $26.86 | -$3.15 | 44% 1363-1710 (3073) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $15.51 | $20.96 | +$5.45 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $10.78 | $12.23 | +$1.45 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $29.48 | — | -$21.78 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $11.85 | $15.19 | +$3.34 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98.2¢ | $5.94 | $6.05 | +$0.11 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $3.52 | $4.05 | +$0.53 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $2.22 | — | -$2.22 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
Invested
$521.67
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$6.44
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$12.1
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Both legs:
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$69.42
Value
$70.12
PnL
+$0.7
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$56.12
Value
$44.44
PnL
-$5.88
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$36
Value
$43.21
PnL
+$7.21
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$30.01
Value
$26.86
PnL
-$3.15
Record
44%
1363-1710 (3073)
Invested
$15.51
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$5.45
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$12.23
PnL
+$1.45
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$29.48
Value
—
PnL
-$21.78
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.85
Value
$15.19
PnL
+$3.34
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$0.11
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.53
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$2.22
Value
—
PnL
-$2.22
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.01
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $70.12
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $44.44
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $43.21
13897651
Down — $26.86
uninformedfloww
Down — $20.96
ply-pm2
Down — $12.23
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $15.19