Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 85%
1 arb excluded
$714.29
$8.56
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500.26 | $500 | +$0.98 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $247.77 | — | -$249.02 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $77.22 | $78 | +$0.78 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $36.23 | $33.98 | -$2.25 | 44% 1359-1698 (3057) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $20 | +$2.2 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $11.13 | $14 | +$2.87 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $12.6 | $14.16 | +$1.56 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $20 | +$9.4 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $10.62 | $9 | -$1.62 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $5.56 | $6.11 | +$0.55 | 33% 1191-2369 (3560) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $4.38 | — | -$4.38 | 49% 1701-1739 (3440) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $10.85 | $5 | -$1.1 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $3.2 | $4.05 | +$0.85 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
Invested
$500.26
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.98
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.22
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$36.23
Value
$33.98
PnL
-$2.25
Record
44%
1359-1698 (3057)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.2
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$14
PnL
+$2.87
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$12.6
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$1.56
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.4
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$9
Value
$10
PnL
+$1
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$10.62
Value
$9
PnL
-$1.62
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$5.56
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$0.55
Record
33%
1191-2369 (3560)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$4.38
Value
—
PnL
-$4.38
Record
49%
1701-1739 (3440)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.1
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.85
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $78
13897651
Down — $33.98
aaa221
Down — $20
soswald1
Down — $14
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $14.16
ply-pm2
Down — $20
BoneOhio
Down — $10
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $9
pspspsps5
Down — $6.11