Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 40%
2 arb excluded
$760.03
-$129.81
Smart Money Signal
6 of 15 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $511.21 | $485 | -$3.4 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $237.89 | $485 | +$246.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $253.6 | — | -$250.25 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $103.4 | $121 | +$17.6 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $110 | -$19.7 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $55 | $110 | +$42.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $45 | — | -$62.35 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $97.84 | — | -$97.84 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $38.53 | — | -$38.53 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $23.09 | — | -$23.09 | 44% 1359-1698 (3057) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 13.7¢ | $2.05 | $15 | +$12.95 | 48% 2437-2636 (5073) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 24.8¢ | $6.24 | $8.63 | +$15.08 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $3.86 | $7.24 | +$3.38 | 50% 2738-2731 (5469) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $7.01 | — | -$7.01 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $20.26 | — | -$17.14 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $1.12 | $7 | +$5.88 | 49% 1701-1739 (3440) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $1.85 | $6.17 | +$4.32 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.25 | — | -$2.25 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $0.72 | — | -$0.72 | 36% 1451-2565 (4016) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.2¢ | $2.34 | — | -$2.34 | 65% 2713-1481 (4194) |
Invested
$511.21
Value
$485
PnL
-$3.4
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.4
Value
$121
PnL
+$17.6
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
Invested
$150
Value
$110
PnL
-$19.7
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.84
Value
—
PnL
-$97.84
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Invested
$38.53
Value
—
PnL
-$38.53
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$23.09
Value
—
PnL
-$23.09
Record
44%
1359-1698 (3057)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$12.95
Record
48%
2437-2636 (5073)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$8.63
PnL
+$15.08
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
Invested
$3.86
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$3.38
Record
50%
2738-2731 (5469)
Invested
$7.01
Value
—
PnL
-$7.01
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$20.26
Value
—
PnL
-$17.14
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
$7
PnL
+$5.88
Record
49%
1701-1739 (3440)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
$6.17
PnL
+$4.32
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
Invested
$2.25
Value
—
PnL
-$2.25
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
Invested
$0.72
Value
—
PnL
-$0.72
Record
36%
1451-2565 (4016)
Invested
$2.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
65%
2713-1481 (4194)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $121
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
13897651
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $15
suntori
Down — $8.63
dvasdkasodk
Down — $7.24
aaa221
CTRUp — $0