Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 99¢ · $565 held · ends Nov 15

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$564.99

Combined PnL

-$6.78

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 98.5¢

+86% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$539.32

Total Shares556

Combined PnL-$3.94

Up4 traders

Total Value$25.67

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$2.83

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$510.15	$502.23	+$2.88	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$27.72	$21.89	-$5.83	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$12.36	$13.68	+$1.32	44% 1337-1675 (3012)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 81¢	$11.34	$11.2	-$0.14	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 26.1¢	$13.11	$8.78	-$4.33	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 97¢	$4.85	$4	-$0.85	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$2.04	$2.22	+$0.18	50% 1679-1712 (3391)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1	$1	+$0	51% 2054-1988 (4042)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$510.15

Value

$502.23

PnL

+$2.88

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$27.72

Value

$21.89

PnL

-$5.83

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$12.36

Value

$13.68

PnL

+$1.32

Record

44%

1337-1675 (3012)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$11.34

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$0.14

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$13.11

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$4.33

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

-$0.85

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

1679-1712 (3391)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.