Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$566.28

Combined PnL

-$69.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$69.22

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$3.04

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$66.73

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$511.22	$497.07	-$4.76	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$249.72	$497.07	+$249.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$253.21	—	-$254
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 99¢	$30.91	$31.23	+$0.32	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 87.9¢	$31.04	$26.94	-$4.1	44% 1337-1675 (3012)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$28.55	—	-$28.55	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80¢	$10.47	$11.04	+$0.73	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$24.11	—	-$24.11	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$4.46	—	-$4.46	39% 1630-2522 (4152)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 7.5¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	50% 1679-1712 (3391)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.16	—	-$0.16	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	46% 3134-3672 (6806)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$511.22

Value

$497.07

PnL

-$4.76

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$249.7250.2¢+$249.24

Down$253.2150¢-$254

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$30.91

Value

$31.23

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

Invested

$31.04

Value

$26.94

PnL

-$4.1

Record

44%

1337-1675 (3012)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$28.55

Value

—

PnL

-$28.55

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.47

Value

$11.04

PnL

+$0.73

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$24.11

Value

—

PnL

-$24.11

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$4.46

Value

—

PnL

-$4.46

Record

39%

1630-2522 (4152)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

1679-1712 (3391)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

—

PnL

-$0.16

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x61c8b791...d16e44

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794734700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $31.23

13897651

Up — $26.94

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $11.04

ply-pm2

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket