Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$565.44

Combined PnL

-$33.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares112

Combined PnL-$40.4

Down4 traders

Total Value$65.44

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$6.72

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$504.4	$500	-$1.5	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$249.41	—	-$251.5
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$19.85	—	-$19.85	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 17.5¢	$12.38	—	-$12.38	44% 1337-1675 (3012)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 99¢	$29.7	$30	+$0.3	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$18.81	$19	+$0.19	98% 4234-88 (4322)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 77¢	$6.12	—	-$6.12	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$6.12	$8.25	+$2.46	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$4.42	$8.19	+$3.77	48% 1426-1527 (2953)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	52% 3683-3445 (7128)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$504.4

Value

$500

PnL

-$1.5

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$249.4149.9¢-$251.5

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

—

PnL

-$19.85

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$12.38

Value

—

PnL

-$12.38

Record

44%

1337-1675 (3012)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

Invested

$18.81

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.19

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

—

PnL

-$6.12

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$2.46

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

Invested

$4.42

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$3.77

Record

48%

1426-1527 (2953)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.05

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x096c7e0a...3ef189

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794732300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm2

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $30

hoodquant

Down — $19

asdaefef

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $8.25

PBot-5

Down — $8.19

soswald1

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket