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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 62%

Total Value

$84.54

Combined PnL

-$727.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$758.9

Up5 traders

Total Value$84.54

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$30.96

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$513.87	—	-$487.84	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$150	—	-$126.1	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$38.78	—	-$38.78	54% 2562-2153 (4715)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$57.61	—	-$57.61	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 37.6¢	$17.05	—	-$17.05	44% 1326-1666 (2992)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$18.2	—	-$18.2	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 93.2¢	$16.2	$17.39	+$1.19	50% 1672-1702 (3374)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 91¢	$12.88	$14.15	+$1.27	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$16.5	$33	+$16.5	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 40¢	$5.6	$14	+$8.4	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.4	$6	+$3.6	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 90¢	$8.1	—	-$8.1	39% 1613-2504 (4117)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 87¢	$5.22	—	-$5.22	50% 2671-2654 (5325)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$513.87

Value

—

PnL

-$487.84

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Invested

$150

Value

—

PnL

-$126.1

Record

52%

3670-3435 (7105)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$38.78

Value

—

PnL

-$38.78

Record

54%

2562-2153 (4715)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$57.61

Value

—

PnL

-$57.61

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$17.05

Value

—

PnL

-$17.05

Record

44%

1326-1666 (2992)

Invested

$18.2

Value

—

PnL

-$18.2

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$17.39

PnL

+$1.19

Record

50%

1672-1702 (3374)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$1.27

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$33

PnL

+$16.5

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$14

PnL

+$8.4

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

Invested

$2.4

Value

$6

PnL

+$3.6

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

—

PnL

-$8.1

Record

39%

1613-2504 (4117)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

—

PnL

-$5.22

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5f4c0ee2...5faeeb

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794729000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

13897651

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $17.39

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $14.15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $33

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $14

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