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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$330.64

Combined PnL

-$487.2

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares561

Combined PnL-$506.55

Up7 traders

Total Value$260.73

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$19.35

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.2¢	$522.17	—	-$489.96	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$130	+$8.04	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 36.3¢	$96.99	$69.91	-$27.08	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$39.14	$69.91	+$30.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$57.85	—	-$57.85
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$60.39	$61	+$0.61	98% 4160-87 (4247)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$30.82	$37.03	+$6.21	44% 1317-1660 (2977)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 23.7¢	$12.14	—	-$12.14	46% 3106-3639 (6745)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$11.8	$17.11	+$5.31	50% 1667-1698 (3365)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$21.29	$5.58	-$6.02	62% 4354-2613 (6967)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	—	-$1.95	48% 2388-2630 (5018)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 43¢	$2.15	$5	+$2.85	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.65	$5	+$2.35	39% 1607-2488 (4095)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	50% 2651-2645 (5296)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$522.17

Value

—

PnL

-$489.96

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Invested

$150

Value

$130

PnL

+$8.04

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$96.99

Value

$69.91

PnL

-$27.08

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

Both legs:

Up$39.1456¢+$30.77

Down$57.8536.3¢-$57.85

Invested

$60.39

Value

$61

PnL

+$0.61

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

Invested

$30.82

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$6.21

Record

44%

1317-1660 (2977)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

—

PnL

-$12.14

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$17.11

PnL

+$5.31

Record

50%

1667-1698 (3365)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$6.02

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

—

PnL

-$1.95

Record

48%

2388-2630 (5018)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.85

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.35

Record

39%

1607-2488 (4095)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

50%

2651-2645 (5296)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4a065c07...e39f8d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794727500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $130

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $61

13897651

Up — $37.03

suntori

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $17.11

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5.58

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $5

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