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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 62%

Total Value

$90.49

Combined PnL

-$501.69

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares647

Combined PnL-$533.54

Up5 traders

Total Value$90.49

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$31.85

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$513.03	—	-$488.78	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$35.2	$47.14	+$11.94	52% 3641-3403 (7044)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$28.35	—	-$28.35	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 43¢	$10.01	$23.29	+$13.28	49% 1410-1488 (2898)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$8.46	$8.06	+$0.71	62% 4316-2591 (6907)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$10	+$5	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 28¢	$2.52	—	-$2.52	44% 1307-1651 (2958)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 27.3¢	$5.45	—	-$5.45	54% 2526-2126 (4652)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	47% 2362-2616 (4978)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 54¢	$1.08	$2	+$0.92	67% 3669-1840 (5509)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.61	—	-$0.61	44% 2263-2898 (5161)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$0.68	—	-$0.68	50% 1662-1690 (3352)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$5.55	—	-$5.55	47% 2261-2512 (4773)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$513.03

Value

—

PnL

-$488.78

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Invested

$35.2

Value

$47.14

PnL

+$11.94

Record

52%

3641-3403 (7044)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

—

PnL

-$28.35

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

Invested

$10.01

Value

$23.29

PnL

+$13.28

Record

49%

1410-1488 (2898)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$0.71

Record

62%

4316-2591 (6907)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$5

Value

$10

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

—

PnL

-$2.52

Record

44%

1307-1651 (2958)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

—

PnL

-$5.45

Record

54%

2526-2126 (4652)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

47%

2362-2616 (4978)

Invested

$1.08

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.92

Record

67%

3669-1840 (5509)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.61

Value

—

PnL

-$0.61

Record

44%

2263-2898 (5161)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.68

Value

—

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

1662-1690 (3352)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

—

PnL

-$5.55

Record

47%

2261-2512 (4773)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 13 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a33742f...b9ce66

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794723000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $47.14

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

PBot-5

Up — $23.29

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $8.06

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $10

13897651

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $2

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