Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 63%
$224.38
-$625.84
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.5¢ | $506.56 | — | -$495.48 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | — | -$106.05 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $53.46 | $54 | +$0.54 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $32.79 | $35.95 | +$3.16 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 95.7¢ | $38.5 | $40.22 | +$1.72 | 50% 1655-1677 (3332) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $48.31 | — | -$46.07 | 54% 2509-2112 (4621) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $18.79 | $30 | +$11.21 | 44% 1294-1645 (2939) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $17.5 | $35 | +$17.5 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $7.88 | $15 | +$7.12 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $3.84 | $14.21 | +$10.37 | 39% 1577-2453 (4030) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.5¢ | $4.4 | — | -$4.4 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $5.25 | — | -$5.25 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.96 | — | -$3.96 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.2¢ | $6.17 | — | -$6.17 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.6¢ | $12.38 | — | -$2.34 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.5¢ | $1.52 | — | -$1.52 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.2¢ | $3.29 | — | -$3.29 | 36% 1413-2501 (3914) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
Invested
$506.56
Value
—
PnL
-$495.48
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$106.05
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$54
PnL
+$0.54
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$32.79
Value
$35.95
PnL
+$3.16
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$38.5
Value
$40.22
PnL
+$1.72
Record
50%
1655-1677 (3332)
Invested
$48.31
Value
—
PnL
-$46.07
Record
54%
2509-2112 (4621)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$30
PnL
+$11.21
Record
44%
1294-1645 (2939)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$35
PnL
+$17.5
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.12
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
$14.21
PnL
+$10.37
Record
39%
1577-2453 (4030)
Invested
$4.4
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$5.25
Value
—
PnL
-$5.25
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Invested
$3.96
Value
—
PnL
-$3.96
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.17
Value
—
PnL
-$6.17
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$12.38
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$1.52
Value
—
PnL
-$1.52
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
Invested
$3.29
Value
—
PnL
-$3.29
Record
36%
1413-2501 (3914)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $54
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $35.95
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $40.22
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
13897651
Down — $30
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $35
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $15
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $14.21