Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $905 held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$905.43

Combined PnL

$82.06

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$332.54

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$19.36

Up3 traders

Total Value$77.89

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$62.7

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$495	+$3.9	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$245	+$3.9
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 95.4¢	$187.97	$196.84	+$8.87	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 9.4¢	$13.18	$70.06	+$56.89	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$33.35	$42.16	+$8.81	44% 1281-1640 (2921)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$26.56	$29.67	+$3.11	39% 1562-2438 (4000)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$28.26	$23.36	-$4.91	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 80.1¢	$16.1	$20.08	+$3.98	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 88¢	$8.8	$10	+$1.2	47% 2327-2591 (4918)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.68	$7	+$5.32	50% 1651-1664 (3315)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 88¢	$5.28	$6	+$0.72	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$2.5	-$2.4	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98¢	$1.96	$1.95	-$0.01	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.33	$0.83	+$0.5	33% 1127-2251 (3378)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

+$3.9

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$0

Down$24550¢+$3.9

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$187.97

Value

$196.84

PnL

+$8.87

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$70.06

PnL

+$56.89

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$33.35

Value

$42.16

PnL

+$8.81

Record

44%

1281-1640 (2921)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$26.56

Value

$29.67

PnL

+$3.11

Record

39%

1562-2438 (4000)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$28.26

Value

$23.36

PnL

-$4.91

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$16.1

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$3.98

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$8.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.2

Record

47%

2327-2591 (4918)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

1651-1664 (3315)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$5.28

Value

PnL

+$0.72

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$2.4

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

1127-2251 (3378)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.