Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (54%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 46¢ · $735 held · ends Nov 15

Up46¢Down54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

Total Value

$734.99

Combined PnL

$17.69

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 46¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up46%

Down54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$628.48

Total Shares682

Combined PnL-$4.1

Down6 traders

Total Value$106.04

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$21.79

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.1¢	$503.1	$485.38	-$1.28	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$150	$141.1	-$1.01	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 44¢	$26.91	$38.99	+$16.13	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$31.52	$34.31	+$2.79	44% 1281-1640 (2921)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 78.4¢	$12.73	$12.67	-$0.02	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 93¢	$11.89	$9.67	-$2.22	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 28¢	$1.68	$5.4	+$3.72	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 36¢	$3.6	$5	+$1.4	39% 1562-2438 (4000)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.46	$1.56	+$0.11	33% 1127-2251 (3378)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 19.5¢	$1.95	$0.35	-$1.6	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$0.41	$0.08	-$0.33	50% 1651-1664 (3315)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$503.1

Value

$485.38

PnL

-$1.28

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$150

Value

$141.1

PnL

-$1.01

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$26.91

Value

$38.99

PnL

+$16.13

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$31.52

Value

$34.31

PnL

+$2.79

Record

44%

1281-1640 (2921)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$11.89

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$1.68

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$3.72

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

PnL

+$1.4

Record

39%

1562-2438 (4000)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.11

Record

33%

1127-2251 (3378)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$1.6

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

1651-1664 (3315)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.