Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Down 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$573.04

Combined PnL

-$142.42

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$77.62

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$0.78

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares247

Combined PnL-$143.2

Up — 14%Down — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$517.85	$495.42	-$2.55	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.6	$495.42	+$247.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$253.15	—	-$250.42
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$76.84	$77.62	+$0.78	98% 4049-84 (4133)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 28.8¢	$43.4	—	-$43.4	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$21.38	—	-$21.38	44% 1281-1640 (2921)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$29.56	—	-$28.67	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$38.9	—	-$38.9	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$5.53	—	-$5.12	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 38.2¢	$5.73	—	-$5.73	39% 1562-2438 (4000)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$517.85

Value

$495.42

PnL

-$2.55

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$247.650¢+$247.87

Down$253.1550.4¢-$250.42

Invested

$76.84

Value

$77.62

PnL

+$0.78

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$43.4

Value

—

PnL

-$43.4

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$21.38

Value

—

PnL

-$21.38

Record

44%

1281-1640 (2921)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$29.56

Value

—

PnL

-$28.67

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$38.9

Value

—

PnL

-$38.9

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$5.53

Value

—

PnL

-$5.12

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

—

PnL

-$5.73

Record

39%

1562-2438 (4000)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6a88d163...89d41c

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794715800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $77.62

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

13897651

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket