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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$533.91

Combined PnL

-$141.78

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares241

Combined PnL-$159.62

Down6 traders

Total Value$41.43

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$17.84

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$527.56	$492.47	-$7.71	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$244.94	$492.47	+$244.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$254.83	—	-$252.61
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 36.5¢	$57.56	—	-$57.56	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$34.48	—	-$34.48	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$28.65	—	-$28.65	44% 1266-1632 (2898)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.88	—	-$14.88	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$16.65	—	-$14.35	52% 3571-3339 (6910)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$8.81	$11.4	+$3.1	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$5.05	—	-$5.05	39% 1545-2411 (3956)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$2.88	$6.51	+$3.63	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.89	$11.11	+$5.22	60% 3891-2648 (6539)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$4.65	—	-$4.65	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.73	$1.75	+$0.02	98% 3999-84 (4083)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.4	$5.33	+$2.93	65% 2545-1392 (3937)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.4	$5.33	+$2.93	50% 2549-2566 (5115)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$527.56

Value

$492.47

PnL

-$7.71

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Down$244.9449.7¢+$244.9

Up$254.8350.5¢-$252.61

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$57.56

Value

—

PnL

-$57.56

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$34.48

Value

—

PnL

-$34.48

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$28.65

Value

—

PnL

-$28.65

Record

44%

1266-1632 (2898)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

—

PnL

-$14.88

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$16.65

Value

—

PnL

-$14.35

Record

52%

3571-3339 (6910)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$3.1

Record

63%

4221-2527 (6748)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

—

PnL

-$5.05

Record

39%

1545-2411 (3956)

Invested

$2.88

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$3.63

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

Invested

$5.89

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$5.22

Record

60%

3891-2648 (6539)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

—

PnL

-$4.65

Record

47%

2198-2452 (4650)

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$2.93

Record

65%

2545-1392 (3937)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$2.93

Record

50%

2549-2566 (5115)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc4c985b1...8d0491

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794712800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $11.4

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $6.51

aaa221

Down — $11.11

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