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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$257.17

Combined PnL

-$480.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares619

Combined PnL-$542.25

Up7 traders

Total Value$112.17

Total Shares112

Combined PnL+$61.88

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$505.95	—	-$483.7	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$145	-$3.85	52% 3555-3314 (6869)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	—	-$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$72.5	$145	+$71.15
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 46.4¢	$36.02	—	-$36.02	44% 1260-1624 (2884)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$39.82	$34.23	-$5.59	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$10.15	$25	+$14.85	49% 2374-2443 (4817)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 31.5¢	$7.56	$24	+$16.44	44% 2183-2822 (5005)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$5.14	$11.8	+$6.66	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 46¢	$69.91	$7.15	+$26.52	54% 2440-2083 (4523)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 45¢	$3.4	$5	+$1.6	48% 2261-2474 (4735)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$35.88	—	-$5.85	63% 4195-2511 (6706)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 72¢	$3.6	$5	+$1.4	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.3	—	-$2.3	50% 2527-2554 (5081)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$1.47	—	-$1.47	47% 2185-2435 (4620)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.3	—	-$2.3	39% 1532-2394 (3926)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 5.9¢	$1.12	—	-$1.12	65% 2523-1384 (3907)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$1.89	—	-$1.89	50% 1618-1648 (3266)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$7.6	—	-$7.6	47% 2283-2545 (4828)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.95

Value

—

PnL

-$483.7

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

-$3.85

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢-$75

Up$72.550¢+$71.15

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$36.02

Value

—

PnL

-$36.02

Record

44%

1260-1624 (2884)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$39.82

Value

$34.23

PnL

-$5.59

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$25

PnL

+$14.85

Record

49%

2374-2443 (4817)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$7.56

Value

$24

PnL

+$16.44

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

Invested

$5.14

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$6.66

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Invested

$69.91

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$26.52

Record

54%

2440-2083 (4523)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.6

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$35.88

Value

—

PnL

-$5.85

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

—

PnL

-$2.3

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

—

PnL

-$1.47

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

—

PnL

-$2.3

Record

39%

1532-2394 (3926)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

65%

2523-1384 (3907)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

—

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

—

PnL

-$7.6

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x98b80a6b...39f88f

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794709500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $34.23

uninformedfloww

Up — $25

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $24

suntori

Up — $11.8

ply-pm2

Up — $7.15

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $0

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