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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 67%

Total Value

$32.61

Combined PnL

-$596.27

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 15 top traders (67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$608.5

Down5 traders

Total Value$32.61

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$12.23

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$502.4	—	-$492.15	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$36.24	—	-$36.24	44% 1260-1624 (2884)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$42.92	—	-$38.92	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$28.26	—	-$27.11	52% 3555-3314 (6869)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 23.3¢	$3.16	$13.56	+$10.4	39% 1532-2394 (3926)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$6.43	—	-$6.43	54% 2440-2083 (4523)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 91¢	$5.5	$6.05	+$0.55	63% 4195-2511 (6706)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	50% 2527-2554 (5081)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76¢	$3.8	$5	+$1.2	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$2.97	$3	+$0.03	65% 2523-1384 (3907)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	52% 2790-2541 (5331)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$1.86	—	-$1.86	42% 1805-2456 (4261)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	47% 2283-2545 (4828)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 6¢	$1.14	—	-$1.14	44% 2183-2822 (5005)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1401-2422 (3823)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$502.4

Value

—

PnL

-$492.15

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$36.24

Value

—

PnL

-$36.24

Record

44%

1260-1624 (2884)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$42.92

Value

—

PnL

-$38.92

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$28.26

Value

—

PnL

-$27.11

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$10.4

Record

39%

1532-2394 (3926)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$6.43

Value

—

PnL

-$6.43

Record

54%

2440-2083 (4523)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$0.55

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

2523-1384 (3907)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

52%

2790-2541 (5331)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

—

PnL

-$1.86

Record

42%

1805-2456 (4261)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

—

PnL

-$1.14

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1401-2422 (3823)

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 15 top traders (67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb2e121ec...46e5bd

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794707400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

13897651

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $13.56

ply-pm2

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $6.05

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

aaa221

Down — $5

asidjasiodja

Down — $3

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