Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 73%
3 arb excluded
$835.06
$38.48
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $521.47 | $490.74 | +$3.14 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $248.52 | $490.74 | +$251.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $245.45 | — | -$248.45 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $74.53 | $79.1 | +$4.56 | 44% 1260-1624 (2884) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.7¢ | $52.75 | $79.1 | +$26.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.6¢ | $21.79 | — | -$21.79 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $90.45 | $63.52 | +$1.2 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.4¢ | $42.83 | $63.52 | +$24.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.3¢ | $23.25 | — | -$23.25 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $41.19 | $47.11 | +$5.92 | 39% 1532-2394 (3926) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $41.8 | $50.06 | +$11.76 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $28.72 | $47.81 | +$19.09 | 54% 2440-2083 (4523) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $21.01 | $24.5 | +$3.49 | 59% 3865-2632 (6497) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 73.6¢ | $9 | $12.23 | +$3.23 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $7.45 | $10 | +$2.55 | 52% 2790-2541 (5331) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $5.74 | — | -$5.74 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 63% 4195-2511 (6706) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 50% 2527-2554 (5081) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $2.16 | — | -$2.16 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1401-2422 (3823) |
Invested
$521.47
Value
$490.74
PnL
+$3.14
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.53
Value
$79.1
PnL
+$4.56
Record
44%
1260-1624 (2884)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.45
Value
$63.52
PnL
+$1.2
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$41.19
Value
$47.11
PnL
+$5.92
Record
39%
1532-2394 (3926)
Invested
$41.8
Value
$50.06
PnL
+$11.76
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Invested
$28.72
Value
$47.81
PnL
+$19.09
Record
54%
2440-2083 (4523)
Invested
$21.01
Value
$24.5
PnL
+$3.49
Record
59%
3865-2632 (6497)
Invested
$9
Value
$12.23
PnL
+$3.23
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.45
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.55
Record
52%
2790-2541 (5331)
Invested
$5.74
Value
—
PnL
-$5.74
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
63%
4195-2511 (6706)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
2527-2554 (5081)
Invested
$2.16
Value
—
PnL
-$2.16
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1401-2422 (3823)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $47.11
soswald1
Down — $50.06
ply-pm2
Down — $47.81
aaa221
Down — $24.5
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $12.23
MayorMamdani
Down — $10
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0