Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 100¢ · $619 held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

Total Value

$619.01

Combined PnL

$9.48

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$590.01

Total Shares595

Combined PnL+$0.55

Up3 traders

Total Value$29

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$8.93

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.3¢	$511.7	$493.85	+$3.14	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$29.68	$29.14	-$0.54	44% 1244-1613 (2857)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 35.5¢	$17.75	$25	+$7.25	49% 1332-1414 (2746)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$13.93	$17.07	+$3.14	52% 3521-3295 (6816)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$15.79	$15.55	-$0.24	54% 2422-2063 (4485)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 92¢	$13.05	$8.79	-$3.65	39% 1501-2385 (3886)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 85¢	$7.23	$7.44	+$0.21	47% 2261-2522 (4783)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.97	+$0.03	64% 2500-1377 (3877)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$9.02	$5.93	-$1.61	62% 4151-2496 (6647)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.98	+$0.02	67% 3532-1757 (5289)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.32	$3	+$1.68	42% 1769-2426 (4195)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 94¢	$1.25	$1.3	+$0.05	33% 1084-2220 (3304)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1	$1	+$0	50% 848-846 (1694)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$511.7

Value

$493.85

PnL

+$3.14

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.14

PnL

-$0.54

Record

44%

1244-1613 (2857)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$7.25

Record

49%

1332-1414 (2746)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$13.93

Value

$17.07

PnL

+$3.14

Record

52%

3521-3295 (6816)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.79

Value

$15.55

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

2422-2063 (4485)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$13.05

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$3.65

Record

39%

1501-2385 (3886)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

2261-2522 (4783)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

64%

2500-1377 (3877)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$9.02

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$1.61

Record

62%

4151-2496 (6647)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

67%

3532-1757 (5289)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

PnL

+$1.68

Record

42%

1769-2426 (4195)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

1084-2220 (3304)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

848-846 (1694)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.