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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$167

Combined PnL

-$505.83

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares538

Combined PnL-$510.96

Down4 traders

Total Value$17

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$5.13

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$498.08	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$4.42	52% 3521-3295 (6816)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$150	+$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$67.43	—	-$70.58
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	67% 3532-1757 (5289)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$5	+$2.75	48% 2240-2454 (4694)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	$5	+$2.2	54% 2422-2063 (4485)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$7.94	—	-$7.94	44% 1244-1613 (2857)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$1.92	$2	+$0.08	62% 4151-2496 (6647)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	42% 1769-2426 (4195)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	50% 1607-1638 (3245)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.2	—	-$2.2	39% 1501-2385 (3886)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$498.08

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$4.42

Record

52%

3521-3295 (6816)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢+$75

Up$67.4350¢-$70.58

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

3532-1757 (5289)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

2240-2454 (4694)

Invested

$2.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.2

Record

54%

2422-2063 (4485)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

—

PnL

-$7.94

Record

44%

1244-1613 (2857)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.08

Record

62%

4151-2496 (6647)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

42%

1769-2426 (4195)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

1607-1638 (3245)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

—

PnL

-$2.2

Record

39%

1501-2385 (3886)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x32d6aeaf...fb5817

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794705600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Down — $5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $5

ply-pm2

Down — $5

13897651

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $2

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $0

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