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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$189.99

Combined PnL

-$624.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares722
Combined PnL-$660.77
Up5 traders
Total Value$74.99
Total Shares75
Combined PnL+$36.4
Down — 50%Up — 50%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$513.98

Value

—

PnL

-$479.25

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$150

Value

$115

PnL

-$25.2

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Down$72.550¢-$72.05
Up$57.550¢+$46.85
UN
uninformedflowwCTR
Down

Invested

$115.95

Value

—

PnL

-$100.92

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$39.24

Value

—

PnL

-$39.24

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

13
13897651CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$37.86

Value

—

PnL

-$37.86

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Up

Invested

$5.02

Value

$24.54

PnL

+$19.52

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Up

Invested

$9.62

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$3.54

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$11.88

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$5.61

Value

$9

PnL

+$3.39

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

pspspsps5<$100
Up

Invested

$6.46

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$9.83

Record

33%

1061-2196 (3257)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

—

PnL

-$3.5

Record

52%

2738-2492 (5230)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x13fba1d9...92e68d
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794702600

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$479.25
SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$25.2
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$100.92
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$39.24
13

13897651

CTR

Down — $0

-$37.86

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $24.54

+$19.52
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $13.16

+$3.54
HO

hoodquant

Up — $12

+$0.12
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $9

+$3.39

pspspsps5

Up — $16.29

+$9.83
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