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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$161.43

Combined PnL

-$551.14

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$580.45

Up4 traders

Total Value$115.23

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$29.31

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$516.27	—	-$494.53	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$66.33	$67	+$0.67	98% 3857-81 (3938)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$54.74	$46.2	-$8.54	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$32.9	—	-$32.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$21.83	$46.2	+$24.36
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$33.89	—	-$33.89	44% 1229-1596 (2825)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 28.6¢	$6.35	$22.23	+$15.88	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$18.81	—	-$18.81	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$6.31	$19	+$12.69	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$28.7	—	-$23.2	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 8.7¢	$9.77	—	-$5.22	44% 2131-2751 (4882)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$6.93	$7	+$0.07	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$13.4	—	-$4.8	63% 4099-2458 (6557)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$516.27

Value

—

PnL

-$494.53

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Invested

$66.33

Value

$67

PnL

+$0.67

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$54.74

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$8.54

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Both legs:

Down$32.960.1¢-$32.9

Up$21.8347.3¢+$24.36

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$33.89

Value

—

PnL

-$33.89

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$22.23

PnL

+$15.88

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

—

PnL

-$18.81

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$19

PnL

+$12.69

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$28.7

Value

—

PnL

-$23.2

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$9.77

Value

—

PnL

-$5.22

Record

44%

2131-2751 (4882)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

—

PnL

-$4.8

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3d8f3c28...464057

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794701700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $67

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $22.23

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $19

soswald1

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $7

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