Solana Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $705 held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$705.27

Combined PnL

-$21.27

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 100¢

+79% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$591.49

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$12.61

Up5 traders

Total Value$113.34

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$8.66

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$502.55	$503.35	+$6.95	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$150	$111.68	+$1.77	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 88¢	$68.73	$52.05	-$16.68	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$26.16	$23.29	-$2.87	44% 1229-1596 (2825)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 95.9¢	$13.53	$6.93	+$0.05	63% 4099-2458 (6557)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$5.94	$5.88	-$0.06	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$1.62	$1.09	-$0.53	33% 1061-2196 (3257)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 8.7¢	$1.1	$0.44	-$0.65	50% 1577-1608 (3185)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$1.63	$0.12	-$1.51	38% 1469-2355 (3824)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 27.8¢	$7.74	$0.01	-$7.73	51% 3248-3166 (6414)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$502.55

Value

$503.35

PnL

+$6.95

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$150

Value

$111.68

PnL

+$1.77

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$68.73

Value

$52.05

PnL

-$16.68

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$26.16

Value

$23.29

PnL

-$2.87

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$13.53

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.53

Record

33%

1061-2196 (3257)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1.51

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$7.74

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.73

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.