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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 22% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$718.22

Combined PnL

-$219.29

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$257.89

Down7 traders

Total Value$218.22

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$38.6

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$1.18	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.52	—	-$248.82
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$150	—	-$150	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 73¢	$71.38	$97.75	+$26.37	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$42.41	$48.47	+$6.06	38% 1469-2355 (3824)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$23.24	$25	+$1.76	44% 1229-1596 (2825)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 58¢	$14.98	$15	+$0.02	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$15	+$0.02	52% 1415-1309 (2724)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$11.39	$14.96	+$3.57	33% 1061-2196 (3257)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60¢	$1.22	$2.03	+$0.81	63% 4099-2458 (6557)
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 34.6¢	$107.89	—	-$107.89	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$1.18

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$248.5250¢-$248.82

Invested

$150

Value

—

PnL

-$150

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Invested

$71.38

Value

$97.75

PnL

+$26.37

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$42.41

Value

$48.47

PnL

+$6.06

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

Invested

$23.24

Value

$25

PnL

+$1.76

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

1415-1309 (2724)

Invested

$11.39

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$3.57

Record

33%

1061-2196 (3257)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.81

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

Invested

$107.89

Value

—

PnL

-$107.89

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Smart Money Signal

Up

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6b0ca4f3...b6178f

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794698700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $97.75

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $48.47

13897651

Down — $25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $15

0x50f7

Down — $15

pspspsps5

Down — $14.96

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $2.03

suntori

Up — $0

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