Solana Up or Down - November 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (91%) · Down at 100¢ · $646 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Down
11
Down 91%
$645.7
$0.42
57.1¢ → 100¢
+75% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $506.4 | $500.67 | +$4.25 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $46.72 | $46.72 | +$0 | 46% 2830-3355 (6185) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $25.93 | $30.17 | +$4.24 | 38% 1448-2335 (3783) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $25.87 | $24.44 | -$1.43 | 43% 1215-1584 (2799) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $28.74 | $21.79 | -$2.15 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $12.87 | $8.33 | -$4.53 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $7 | $6.96 | -$0.04 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $3.99 | $4.64 | +$0.65 | 33% 1050-2176 (3226) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $1.6 | $1.03 | -$0.57 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $0.9 | $0.9 | -$0.01 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.05 | +$0 | 37% 1368-2322 (3690) |
Invested
$506.4
Value
$500.67
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$46.72
Value
$46.72
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2830-3355 (6185)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$25.93
Value
$30.17
PnL
+$4.24
Record
38%
1448-2335 (3783)
Invested
$25.87
Value
$24.44
PnL
-$1.43
Record
43%
1215-1584 (2799)
Invested
$28.74
Value
$21.79
PnL
-$2.15
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$4.53
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$7
Value
$6.96
PnL
-$0.04
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.64
PnL
+$0.65
Record
33%
1050-2176 (3226)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.57
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1368-2322 (3690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.