Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

6 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (32%) · Up at 100¢ · $820 held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 32%

Total Value

$819.78

Combined PnL

$13.24

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 100¢

+71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 19 top traders (32%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$775.27

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$7.44

Down13 traders

Total Value$44.51

Total Shares1,681

Combined PnL+$5.8

Up — 32%Down — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.6¢	$528.52	$490.27	+$0.76	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$145.91	+$1.88	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 90.8¢	$81.08	$79.2	-$1.88	43% 1206-1573 (2779)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 87¢	$49.71	$40.27	+$3.55	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$9.85	$26.12	+$16.26	52% 1395-1293 (2688)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$12.87	$15.6	+$2.73	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.4¢	$2.43	$6.86	+$4.43	33% 1045-2151 (3196)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 89.9¢	$3.62	$4.02	+$0.4	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$1.78	$2.37	+$0.59	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$4.17	$2.28	-$1.89	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 1.1¢	$0.87	$2.1	+$1.23	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 2.3¢	$1.52	$1.78	+$0.26	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 0.8¢	$0.31	$1.03	+$0.72	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$1.1	$0.73	-$0.37	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 3.5¢	$0.95	$0.72	-$0.23	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.27	+$0.17	37% 1362-2297 (3659)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.12	$0.14	+$0.02	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 6.5¢	$12.96	$0.1	-$12.86	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$2.54	$0.02	-$2.53	47% 2188-2425 (4613)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$528.52

Value

$490.27

PnL

+$0.76

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

soswald1

Invested

$150

Value

$145.91

PnL

+$1.88

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

13897651<$100

Invested

$81.08

Value

$79.2

PnL

-$1.88

Record

43%

1206-1573 (2779)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$49.71

Value

$40.27

PnL

+$3.55

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.85

Value

$26.12

PnL

+$16.26

Record

52%

1395-1293 (2688)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$2.73

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.43

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$4.43

Record

33%

1045-2151 (3196)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$4.02

PnL

+$0.4

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.59

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.17

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$1.89

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.87

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$1.23

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.26

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.31

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.72

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.37

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.17

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.96

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$12.86

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.54

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.53

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 19 top traders (32%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.