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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$687.42

Combined PnL

-$15.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$99.39

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$10.21

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares635

Combined PnL-$25.52

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$506.23	$500	+$2.89	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$251.1	$500	+$253
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$250.11	—	-$250.11
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 87.3¢	$87.04	$88.03	+$0.99	43% 1206-1573 (2779)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87.3¢	$76.88	$88.03	+$11.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.8¢	$10.16	—	-$10.16
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 94.7¢	$26.1	$27	+$0.9	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 93.5¢	$26.48	$28.32	+$1.84	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$21.15	$25	+$5.5	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 72.3¢	$12.05	$15.07	+$3.02	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$2.6	—	-$2.6	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$3.96	—	-$3.96	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82¢	$6	$4	-$1.05	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.5¢	$2.02	—	-$2.02	33% 1045-2151 (3196)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 3.6¢	$0.64	—	-$0.64	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	37% 1362-2297 (3659)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 1.5¢	$2.54	—	-$2.54	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$4.08	—	-$4.08	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 5.5¢	$2.13	—	-$2.13	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 40.5¢	$6.85	—	-$6.85	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$0.45	—	-$0.45	47% 2188-2425 (4613)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.23

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.89

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$251.150.2¢+$253

Down$250.1149.9¢-$250.11

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$87.04

Value

$88.03

PnL

+$0.99

Record

43%

1206-1573 (2779)

Both legs:

Up$76.8887.3¢+$11.15

Down$10.1613.8¢-$10.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$27

PnL

+$0.9

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

Invested

$26.48

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$1.84

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

Invested

$21.15

Value

$25

PnL

+$5.5

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

Invested

$12.05

Value

$15.07

PnL

+$3.02

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Invested

$2.6

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

—

PnL

-$3.96

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$6

Value

$4

PnL

-$1.05

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

—

PnL

-$2.02

Record

33%

1045-2151 (3196)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.64

Value

—

PnL

-$0.64

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

—

PnL

-$2.54

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

—

PnL

-$4.08

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

—

PnL

-$2.13

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

—

PnL

-$6.85

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc664651d...fa5567

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794691200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $27

aaa221

Up — $28.32

asdcaxz

Up — $25

soswald1

Up — $15.07

almach

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $4

pspspsps5

Down — $0

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