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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 36%

Total Value

$235.11

Combined PnL

-$486.11

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares546

Combined PnL-$496.3

Down7 traders

Total Value$235.11

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$10.19

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.8¢	$505.04	—	-$493.56	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$150	$145	+$3.9	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$57.46	$60.26	+$2.81	43% 1206-1573 (2779)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$10.71	$14.16	+$3.45	38% 1439-2312 (3751)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 75¢	$5.36	$4.64	-$0.72	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$3.42	$4.05	+$0.63	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 71¢	$3.55	$5	+$1.45	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.68	—	-$1.68	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$8.03	$2	-$1.33	65% 2432-1333 (3765)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$1.01	—	-$1.01	50% 4444-4507 (8951)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1362-2297 (3659)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$505.04

Value

—

PnL

-$493.56

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

+$3.9

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Invested

$57.46

Value

$60.26

PnL

+$2.81

Record

43%

1206-1573 (2779)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$10.71

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$3.45

Record

38%

1439-2312 (3751)

Invested

$5.36

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.63

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.45

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

—

PnL

-$1.68

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$2

PnL

-$1.33

Record

65%

2432-1333 (3765)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

—

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

4444-4507 (8951)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xca628dbb...fe9c48

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794690600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $145

13897651

Down — $60.26

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $14.16

ply-pm2

Down — $4.64

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $4.05

uninformedfloww

Down — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $2

asdcaxz

Up — $0

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