Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 44%
2 arb excluded
$919.22
-$643.04
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.1¢ | $550.12 | — | -$471.82 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $163.06 | $190.03 | +$26.97 | 49% 1545-1582 (3127) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $197.05 | $159.36 | -$33.91 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $136.83 | $144.41 | +$7.58 | 43% 1206-1573 (2779) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.7¢ | $73.27 | $144.41 | +$71.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.1¢ | $63.56 | — | -$63.56 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.4¢ | $140.07 | $122.13 | -$17.94 | 51% 3203-3131 (6334) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.4¢ | $74.6 | — | -$74.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.6¢ | $65.47 | $122.13 | +$56.66 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $104.2 | $105.25 | +$1.05 | 98% 3774-79 (3853) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 43.4¢ | $114.45 | — | -$77.93 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $37.45 | $65.05 | +$27.6 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $38.33 | $44.76 | +$7.44 | 50% 4444-4507 (8951) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $21.22 | $32.6 | +$11.38 | 38% 1439-2312 (3751) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $26.12 | $30.63 | +$4.51 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $12.55 | — | -$12.55 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $17.17 | — | -$9.24 | 59% 3720-2542 (6262) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $13.67 | $20 | +$6.33 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $5.63 | $5 | -$0.63 | 65% 2432-1333 (3765) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 63% 4035-2416 (6451) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 22.3¢ | $145.46 | — | +$35.56 | 54% 2350-2009 (4359) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 42.7¢ | $155.7 | — | -$155.7 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
Invested
$550.12
Value
—
PnL
-$471.82
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$163.06
Value
$190.03
PnL
+$26.97
Record
49%
1545-1582 (3127)
Invested
$197.05
Value
$159.36
PnL
-$33.91
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$136.83
Value
$144.41
PnL
+$7.58
Record
43%
1206-1573 (2779)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.07
Value
$122.13
PnL
-$17.94
Record
51%
3203-3131 (6334)
Both legs:
Invested
$104.2
Value
$105.25
PnL
+$1.05
Record
98%
3774-79 (3853)
Invested
$114.45
Value
—
PnL
-$77.93
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
Invested
$37.45
Value
$65.05
PnL
+$27.6
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$38.33
Value
$44.76
PnL
+$7.44
Record
50%
4444-4507 (8951)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$21.22
Value
$32.6
PnL
+$11.38
Record
38%
1439-2312 (3751)
Invested
$26.12
Value
$30.63
PnL
+$4.51
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
Invested
$12.55
Value
—
PnL
-$12.55
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
Invested
$17.17
Value
—
PnL
-$9.24
Record
59%
3720-2542 (6262)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.67
Value
$20
PnL
+$6.33
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.63
Record
65%
2432-1333 (3765)
Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
63%
4035-2416 (6451)
Invested
$145.46
Value
—
PnL
+$35.56
Record
54%
2350-2009 (4359)
Invested
$155.7
Value
—
PnL
-$155.7
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $190.03
soswald1
Down — $159.36
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $105.25
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
PBot-5
Down — $65.05
asdcaxz
Down — $44.76
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $32.6