Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
11
Down 73%
1 arb excluded
$658.14
-$38.21
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $515.31 | $496.77 | +$1.14 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $251.32 | β | -$250.75 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.8Β’ | $247.39 | $496.77 | +$251.89 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 47Β’ | $47.99 | $59.36 | +$11.37 | 43% 1196-1570 (2766) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 55.1Β’ | $43.97 | $40.94 | +$0.72 | 51% 3173-3101 (6274) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.9Β’ | $35.4 | β | -$34.45 | 51% 3392-3202 (6594) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 49Β’ | $14.26 | $16.76 | +$2.5 | 54% 2335-1997 (4332) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94.4Β’ | $15.87 | $12 | -$3.07 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 82.5Β’ | $15.85 | $10.31 | -$4.54 | 38% 1429-2293 (3722) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 39.5Β’ | $3.95 | $10 | +$6.05 | 48% 2136-2349 (4485) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 65% 2417-1324 (3741) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.8Β’ | $20.05 | β | -$15.9 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 11Β’ | $1.02 | β | -$1.02 | 50% 2409-2440 (4849) |
Invested
$515.31
Value
$496.77
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.99
Value
$59.36
PnL
+$11.37
Record
43%
1196-1570 (2766)
Invested
$43.97
Value
$40.94
PnL
+$0.72
Record
51%
3173-3101 (6274)
Invested
$35.4
Value
β
PnL
-$34.45
Record
51%
3392-3202 (6594)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$16.76
PnL
+$2.5
Record
54%
2335-1997 (4332)
Invested
$15.87
Value
$12
PnL
-$3.07
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$15.85
Value
$10.31
PnL
-$4.54
Record
38%
1429-2293 (3722)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.05
Record
48%
2136-2349 (4485)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
65%
2417-1324 (3741)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$20.05
Value
β
PnL
-$15.9
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
Invested
$1.02
Value
β
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
2409-2440 (4849)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
13897651
Down β $59.36
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $40.94
soswald1
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
Down β $16.76
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $12

OhioRiskManagement
Down β $10.31
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down β $10
asidjasiodja
Down β $6
hoodquant
Down β $6