Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $567 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Up
12
Up 50%
$566.87
-$25.92
41.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $523.84 | $479.46 | -$19.39 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $30.75 | $34.53 | +$3.78 | 43% 1196-1570 (2766) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $22.67 | $26 | +$3.33 | 54% 2335-1997 (4332) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 52% 1393-1291 (2684) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.2¢ | $8.73 | $5.68 | -$3.04 | 51% 3392-3202 (6594) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $4.88 | -$0.03 | 65% 2417-1324 (3741) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $2.5 | -$1 | 52% 2682-2447 (5129) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.98 | $1.97 | -$0.01 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.08 | $1.33 | +$0.25 | 33% 1042-2138 (3180) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.08 | +$0.02 | 37% 1353-2279 (3632) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.3¢ | $1.63 | $0.02 | -$1.61 | 38% 1429-2293 (3722) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.3¢ | $8.25 | $0.01 | -$8.24 | 50% 4423-4495 (8918) |
Invested
$523.84
Value
$479.46
PnL
-$19.39
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Invested
$30.75
Value
$34.53
PnL
+$3.78
Record
43%
1196-1570 (2766)
Invested
$22.67
Value
$26
PnL
+$3.33
Record
54%
2335-1997 (4332)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
1393-1291 (2684)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$5.68
PnL
-$3.04
Record
51%
3392-3202 (6594)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.03
Record
65%
2417-1324 (3741)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
2682-2447 (5129)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.25
Record
33%
1042-2138 (3180)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
1353-2279 (3632)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.63
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.61
Record
38%
1429-2293 (3722)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$8.24
Record
50%
4423-4495 (8918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.