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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$684.41

Combined PnL

-$39.73

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$39.41

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$1.7

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$38.03

Up — 18%Down — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$509.96	$495	-$6.9	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$249.5	$495	+$246
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$252.9	—	-$252.9
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$9.56	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$75	$150	+$75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$59.29	—	-$65.44
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$37.19	$35.41	-$1.78	43% 1196-1570 (2766)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 10.7¢	$9.85	—	-$9.85	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 98¢	$3.92	$4	+$0.08	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 72¢	$3.6	—	-$3.6	49% 1530-1579 (3109)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$1.66	—	-$1.66	33% 1042-2138 (3180)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$0.47	—	-$0.47	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.45	—	-$0.45	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$15	—	-$15	40% 12-18 (30)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 22.3¢	$4.6	—	-$4.6	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 3.5¢	$0.7	—	-$0.7	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 10.9¢	$1.7	—	-$1.7	38% 1429-2293 (3722)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$509.96

Value

$495

PnL

-$6.9

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$249.550.4¢+$246

Down$252.949.6¢-$252.9

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$9.56

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

Both legs:

Down$59.2950¢-$65.44

Invested

$37.19

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$1.78

Record

43%

1196-1570 (2766)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

—

PnL

-$9.85

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4

PnL

+$0.08

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

49%

1530-1579 (3109)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

—

PnL

-$1.66

Record

33%

1042-2138 (3180)

Invested

$0.47

Value

—

PnL

-$0.47

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

40%

12-18 (30)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

—

PnL

-$4.6

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

—

PnL

-$0.7

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

—

PnL

-$1.7

Record

38%

1429-2293 (3722)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdf00547b...77597d

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794687600

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $35.41

ply-pm2

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $4

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Down — $0

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