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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$776.17

Combined PnL

-$1.44

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$81.73

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$19.07

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$20.5

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$521.92	$485.75	-$6.05	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$249.76	—	-$250.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$246.95	$485.75	+$244.65
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$145	+$6.2	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$72.5	$145	+$71.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$60	—	-$65.15
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 71.1¢	$64.79	$63.7	-$1.09	43% 1196-1570 (2766)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.1¢	$45.3	$63.7	+$18.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$19.49	—	-$19.49
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$35.55	$48.25	+$12.7	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$19.52	$20	+$0.48	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 28.1¢	$38.8	—	-$13.49	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 42¢	$4.47	$5.48	+$1.01	65% 2417-1324 (3741)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 27.2¢	$3.26	—	-$3.26	49% 1530-1579 (3109)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$0.72	—	-$0.72	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$16.57	—	-$0.73	63% 4009-2399 (6408)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.12	$8	+$4.88	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.1	—	-$1.1	67% 3403-1682 (5085)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	50% 2409-2440 (4849)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$521.92

Value

$485.75

PnL

-$6.05

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$249.7649.4¢-$250.7

Down$246.9550.8¢+$244.65

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$145

PnL

+$6.2

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

Both legs:

Down$72.550¢+$71.35

Up$6050¢-$65.15

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$64.79

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$1.09

Record

43%

1196-1570 (2766)

Both legs:

Down$45.371.1¢+$18.4

Up$19.4938.1¢-$19.49

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$35.55

Value

$48.25

PnL

+$12.7

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

Invested

$19.52

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$38.8

Value

—

PnL

-$13.49

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$1.01

Record

65%

2417-1324 (3741)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

—

PnL

-$3.26

Record

49%

1530-1579 (3109)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.72

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$16.57

Value

—

PnL

-$0.73

Record

63%

4009-2399 (6408)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$8

PnL

+$4.88

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

67%

3403-1682 (5085)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

2409-2440 (4849)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2b9f279c...d740e3

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794686100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $48.25

asdcaxz

Down — $20

ply-pm2

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $5.48

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $0

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