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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 43%

Total Value

$332.38

Combined PnL

-$503.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 14 top traders (43%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares686

Combined PnL-$524.7

Up8 traders

Total Value$332.38

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$21.33

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$522.04	—	-$506.06	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$141.34	+$6.35	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$66.23	$60.3	-$5.93	43% 1179-1556 (2735)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70.2¢	$51.64	$61.17	+$9.53	54% 2295-1973 (4268)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 97.8¢	$25.39	$25.96	+$0.57	38% 1393-2264 (3657)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 82¢	$17.72	$20	+$2.28	59% 3649-2497 (6146)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 56¢	$6.72	$12	+$5.28	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$5.6	$5.61	+$0.01	52% 1374-1272 (2646)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$14.34	—	-$0.04	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 46¢	$2.76	$6	+$3.24	44% 2041-2641 (4682)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44	62% 3938-2372 (6310)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$14.25	—	-$14.25	50% 2231-2229 (4460)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1340-2240 (3580)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$2.85	—	-$2.85	47% 2092-2317 (4409)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$522.04

Value

—

PnL

-$506.06

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Invested

$150

Value

$141.34

PnL

+$6.35

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Invested

$66.23

Value

$60.3

PnL

-$5.93

Record

43%

1179-1556 (2735)

Invested

$51.64

Value

$61.17

PnL

+$9.53

Record

54%

2295-1973 (4268)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$25.39

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$0.57

Record

38%

1393-2264 (3657)

Invested

$17.72

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.28

Record

59%

3649-2497 (6146)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$12

PnL

+$5.28

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1374-1272 (2646)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$14.34

Value

—

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$6

PnL

+$3.24

Record

44%

2041-2641 (4682)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

—

PnL

-$1.44

Record

62%

3938-2372 (6310)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

—

PnL

-$14.25

Record

50%

2231-2229 (4460)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1340-2240 (3580)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

47%

2092-2317 (4409)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 14 top traders (43%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x62cf5f1c...595003

Slug

sol-updown-5m-1794680700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $141.34

13897651

Up — $60.3

ply-pm2

Up — $61.17

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $25.96

aaa221

Up — $20

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $12

0x50f7

Up — $5.61

asdcaxz

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $6

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