Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Down 55%
4 arb excluded
$790.07
-$80.55
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $510.66 | $495.14 | +$13.59 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $240.78 | — | -$238.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $244.94 | $495.14 | +$252.24 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $78.34 | $83.73 | +$5.38 | 54% 2295-1973 (4268) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.9¢ | $28.37 | $83.73 | +$55.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.7¢ | $49.97 | — | -$49.97 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 51.7¢ | $78.65 | $77.37 | -$1.29 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.7¢ | $38.66 | — | -$38.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.7¢ | $40 | $77.37 | +$37.37 | |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $68.68 | $55.66 | -$13.02 | 43% 1179-1556 (2735) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.6¢ | $29.28 | $55.66 | +$26.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.7¢ | $39.4 | — | -$39.4 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $57.88 | $53.69 | +$1.87 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $50.88 | — | -$50.88 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $11.57 | — | -$11.57 | 38% 1393-2264 (3657) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $5.36 | $10 | +$4.64 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $19.7 | $8.58 | +$1.6 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.88 | $3.92 | +$0.04 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 | 50% 794-790 (1584) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $17.4 | — | -$17.4 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
Invested
$510.66
Value
$495.14
PnL
+$13.59
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.34
Value
$83.73
PnL
+$5.38
Record
54%
2295-1973 (4268)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.65
Value
$77.37
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.68
Value
$55.66
PnL
-$13.02
Record
43%
1179-1556 (2735)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.88
Value
$53.69
PnL
+$1.87
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$50.88
Value
—
PnL
-$50.88
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$11.57
Value
—
PnL
-$11.57
Record
38%
1393-2264 (3657)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Invested
$5.36
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.64
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$8.58
PnL
+$1.6
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
Invested
$3.88
Value
$3.92
PnL
+$0.04
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$1
Value
$2
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
794-790 (1584)
Invested
$17.4
Value
—
PnL
-$17.4
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Up — $53.69
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
OhioRiskManagement
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $10
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $8.58