Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$974.39
$61.29
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $512.03 | $494.07 | +$0.28 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $247.62 | $494.07 | +$249.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $248.61 | — | -$249.45 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$12.82 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $68.89 | $69.59 | +$0.7 | 52% 1352-1265 (2617) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $68.05 | $67.21 | -$0.83 | 43% 1163-1539 (2702) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $62.42 | $63.05 | +$0.63 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $28.45 | $54.48 | +$26.03 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $16.16 | $30.35 | +$14.2 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.3¢ | $16.29 | — | -$3.24 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $4.67 | $7.3 | +$2.63 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.07 | $6.19 | +$0.12 | 38% 1364-2226 (3590) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.95 | $5.05 | +$0.1 | 64% 2317-1294 (3611) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 49% 2315-2365 (4680) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $5 | +$2.55 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 43% 1993-2596 (4589) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 49% 1453-1538 (2991) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $13.58 | $2.09 | -$0.59 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.5¢ | $8.12 | — | +$0.85 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.27 | — | -$0.27 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1317-2199 (3516) |
Invested
$512.03
Value
$494.07
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$12.82
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$68.89
Value
$69.59
PnL
+$0.7
Record
52%
1352-1265 (2617)
Invested
$68.05
Value
$67.21
PnL
-$0.83
Record
43%
1163-1539 (2702)
Invested
$62.42
Value
$63.05
PnL
+$0.63
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$28.45
Value
$54.48
PnL
+$26.03
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
Invested
$16.16
Value
$30.35
PnL
+$14.2
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
Invested
$16.29
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$2.63
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$0.12
Record
38%
1364-2226 (3590)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.1
Record
64%
2317-1294 (3611)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
2315-2365 (4680)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.55
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
43%
1993-2596 (4589)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
49%
1453-1538 (2991)
Invested
$13.58
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$0.59
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$8.12
Value
—
PnL
+$0.85
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
—
PnL
-$0.27
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1317-2199 (3516)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $150
0x50f7
Down — $69.59
13897651
Down — $67.21
hoodquant
Down — $63.05
aaa221
Down — $54.48
ply-pm2
Down — $30.35
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $7.3
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $6.19