Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$732.37
$12.67
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $500.47 | $498.44 | -$1.03 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $250.47 | — | -$250.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.22 | $498.44 | +$249.44 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $94.05 | $95 | +$0.95 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $38.91 | $70.4 | +$31.49 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $36.71 | $37.34 | +$0.63 | 43% 1163-1539 (2702) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $7.8 | $10.07 | +$2.27 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 48% 1194-1295 (2489) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $6.78 | $5.57 | -$1.21 | 38% 1364-2226 (3590) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $5.97 | $6.56 | +$0.59 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $7.1 | $5 | -$2.1 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $3.84 | $4 | +$0.16 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.5¢ | $2.36 | — | -$2.36 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.3¢ | $0.64 | — | -$0.64 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 43% 1993-2596 (4589) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.45 | — | -$0.45 | 47% 1998-2233 (4231) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 47% 2043-2283 (4326) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.3¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
Invested
$500.47
Value
$498.44
PnL
-$1.03
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.05
Value
$95
PnL
+$0.95
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$38.91
Value
$70.4
PnL
+$31.49
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$36.71
Value
$37.34
PnL
+$0.63
Record
43%
1163-1539 (2702)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$2.27
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
48%
1194-1295 (2489)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.78
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$1.21
Record
38%
1364-2226 (3590)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.97
Value
$6.56
PnL
+$0.59
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.1
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.16
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$2.36
Value
—
PnL
-$2.36
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.64
Value
—
PnL
-$0.64
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
43%
1993-2596 (4589)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
47%
1998-2233 (4231)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
2043-2283 (4326)
Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $95
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $70.4
13897651
Down — $37.34
soswald1
Down — $10.07
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $5.57
MayorMamdani
Down — $6.56
asdcaxz
Down — $5
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $4