Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$333.44
-$560.85
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.2¢ | $521.05 | — | -$490.13 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $135 | +$9 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $67.5 | $135 | +$66.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $52.5 | — | -$57.35 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $110.98 | $112.18 | +$1.2 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.7¢ | $38.72 | — | -$38.72 | 54% 2251-1949 (4200) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $30.51 | $30.41 | -$0.1 | 43% 1163-1539 (2702) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $28.2 | $24.92 | -$3.28 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $10 | +$3.3 | 59% 3587-2446 (6033) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $6.64 | $5.07 | -$1.57 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $5.05 | +$0.15 | 49% 2315-2365 (4680) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $23.4 | — | -$19.05 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $2.32 | $6 | +$3.68 | 42% 1609-2196 (3805) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.45 | $4.8 | +$2.35 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $3.76 | — | -$0.31 | 38% 1364-2226 (3590) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $11.83 | — | -$11.83 | 71% 1551-630 (2181) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $6.55 | — | -$6.55 | 47% 1998-2233 (4231) |
Invested
$521.05
Value
—
PnL
-$490.13
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$150
Value
$135
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.98
Value
$112.18
PnL
+$1.2
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$38.72
Value
—
PnL
-$38.72
Record
54%
2251-1949 (4200)
Invested
$30.51
Value
$30.41
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
1163-1539 (2702)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$24.92
PnL
-$3.28
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.3
Record
59%
3587-2446 (6033)
Invested
$6.64
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$1.57
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
2315-2365 (4680)
Invested
$23.4
Value
—
PnL
-$19.05
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.68
Record
42%
1609-2196 (3805)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$2.35
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
—
PnL
-$0.31
Record
38%
1364-2226 (3590)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$11.83
Value
—
PnL
-$11.83
Record
71%
1551-630 (2181)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
—
PnL
-$6.55
Record
47%
1998-2233 (4231)