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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Up β€” but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

19

Up 37%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$457.01

Combined PnL

-$460.28

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 19 top traders (37%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares567
Combined PnL-$505.98
Down12 traders
Total Value$276.21
Total Shares276
Combined PnL+$45.7
Up β€” 37%Down β€” 63%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$531.71

Value

β€”

PnL

-$475.02

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$150

Value

$108.04

PnL

-$6.87

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

Both legs:

Up$38.0350Β’-$56.04
Down$54.0250Β’+$49.17
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$57.53

Value

$72.77

PnL

+$15.24

Record

54%

2215-1915 (4130)

Both legs:

Up$23.5825.3Β’-$23.58
Down$33.9546.7Β’+$38.82
13
13897651<$100
Down

Invested

$71.08

Value

$63.95

PnL

-$7.14

Record

43%

1145-1523 (2668)

UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Down

Invested

$17.32

Value

$57.73

PnL

+$40.4

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$56.3

Value

$56.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$47.29

Value

$47.77

PnL

+$0.48

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$22.45

Value

β€”

PnL

-$11.1

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$12.21

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.96

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.08

Value

β€”

PnL

-$6.08

Record

48%

1159-1269 (2428)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$0.63

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$6.02

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

cryingbabydicer87<$100
Down

Invested

$5.38

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$4.08

Value

$6

PnL

+$1.92

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.06

Value

β€”

PnL

-$3.06

Record

50%

747-748 (1495)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100
Down

Invested

$3.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Down

Invested

$1.56

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$4.63

Record

38%

1343-2192 (3535)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$1.2

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.8

Record

44%

1957-2530 (4487)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.45

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.15

Record

64%

2269-1266 (3535)

AS
asdcaxzCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.55

Value

β€”

PnL

-$5.55

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.02

Value

β€”

PnL

-$4.02

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0xf7e0213d...7e1752
Slug
sol-updown-5m-1794666900
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