Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Solana Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
19
Up 37%
2 arb excluded
$457.01
-$460.28
Smart Money Signal
7 of 19 top traders (37%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49Β’ | $531.71 | β | -$475.02 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $150 | $108.04 | -$6.87 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $38.03 | β | -$56.04 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $54.02 | $108.04 | +$49.17 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 46.7Β’ | $57.53 | $72.77 | +$15.24 | 54% 2215-1915 (4130) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 25.3Β’ | $23.58 | β | -$23.58 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 46.7Β’ | $33.95 | $72.77 | +$38.82 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 60Β’ | $71.08 | $63.95 | -$7.14 | 43% 1145-1523 (2668) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 30Β’ | $17.32 | $57.73 | +$40.4 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 68Β’ | $56.3 | $56.1 | -$0.2 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $47.29 | $47.77 | +$0.48 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.5Β’ | $22.45 | β | -$11.1 | 60% 3539-2389 (5928) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 44.2Β’ | $12.21 | $11 | -$0.96 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 38Β’ | $6.08 | β | -$6.08 | 48% 1159-1269 (2428) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.7Β’ | $5.06 | $5.69 | +$0.63 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 72Β’ | $6.02 | $5.35 | -$0.67 | 49% 2260-2317 (4577) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $5.38 | $5.43 | +$0.05 | 48% 1402-1515 (2917) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 68Β’ | $4.08 | $6 | +$1.92 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 51Β’ | $3.06 | β | -$3.06 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 65Β’ | $3.25 | $5 | +$1.75 | 47% 2034-2298 (4332) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 25.2Β’ | $1.56 | $6.19 | +$4.63 | 38% 1343-2192 (3535) |
![]() G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 20Β’ | $1.2 | $6 | +$4.8 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.1Β’ | $5.45 | β | -$1.15 | 64% 2269-1266 (3535) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.5Β’ | $5.55 | β | -$5.55 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $4.02 | β | -$4.02 | 42% 1545-2147 (3692) |
Invested
$531.71
Value
β
PnL
-$475.02
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$150
Value
$108.04
PnL
-$6.87
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.53
Value
$72.77
PnL
+$15.24
Record
54%
2215-1915 (4130)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.08
Value
$63.95
PnL
-$7.14
Record
43%
1145-1523 (2668)
Invested
$17.32
Value
$57.73
PnL
+$40.4
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$56.3
Value
$56.1
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$47.29
Value
$47.77
PnL
+$0.48
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$22.45
Value
β
PnL
-$11.1
Record
60%
3539-2389 (5928)
Invested
$12.21
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.96
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$6.08
Value
β
PnL
-$6.08
Record
48%
1159-1269 (2428)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.69
PnL
+$0.63
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$5.35
PnL
-$0.67
Record
49%
2260-2317 (4577)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
1402-1515 (2917)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.92
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
Invested
$3.06
Value
β
PnL
-$3.06
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.75
Record
47%
2034-2298 (4332)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.56
Value
$6.19
PnL
+$4.63
Record
38%
1343-2192 (3535)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.8
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$5.45
Value
β
PnL
-$1.15
Record
64%
2269-1266 (3535)
Invested
$5.55
Value
β
PnL
-$5.55
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$4.02
Value
β
PnL
-$4.02
Record
42%
1545-2147 (3692)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp β $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
13897651
Down β $63.95
uninformedfloww
Down β $57.73
blue.birds
Down β $56.1
hoodquant
Down β $47.77
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $11
PBot-5
CTRUp β $0